Scott Morrison, having fumbled the early vaccine rollout is now leaning heavily on Doherty Institute statistical modelling.
In classic never-take-responsibility mode, he has fudged the target – a broad range of 70 to 80% double vaccinated.
But what does that really mean? Will lockdowns end? How many Australians will get Covid? How many will be hospitalized? How many will die?
The Analysis & Policy Observatory has taken a closer look at the Doherty Institute modellng and clears up the sobering answers. Hundreds of thousands are going to be infected, tens of thousands will be handicapped by long Covid, many thousands will die.
The Doherty Institute modelling is the sole piece of evidence on which the Prime Minister has decided that it is ‘safe’ to significantly reduce the social distancing measures that have helped Australia keep its death rate so much lower than that experienced in most countries around the world.
It is true that high vaccination rates lead to a significant reduction in the spread of COVID19, hospitalisations and deaths from the virus.
But it is also true, as the Doherty modelling makes clear, that lifting restrictions on peoples movement, mixing and mingling when 80 per cent of adults are vaccinated will lead to up to 40,000 Australians per day becoming infected in the months after restrictions are lifted.
Even if we get to 80% (more likely 70%) these will be the many major consequences
1. An 80 per cent target means 9.2 million unvaccinated
Variant D is surging through unvaccinated states in the southern US – killing hundreds every day, stressing health systems to breaking point. But, even unvaccinated US states have higher rates of vaccination than WA or SA.
2. The Doherty model assumes no state borders, and contains no
analysis of the risk of COVID-free states opening up to
states with large outbreaks
3. Daily cases numbers are likely to explode – even with 80 per
cent vaccination
4. The effectiveness of contact tracing is assumed to be
unresponsive to case load!
(Not supported by UK or US experience.)
Any model is only as good as its underlying assumptions. Download the full Australia Institute assessment of the Doherty Modelling here.
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